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05 May 2018, 01:36 | Stacy Ballard
2018 Kentucky Oaks: Preview and Predictions of the 14 Horse Field
Kentucky Derby experts have made their picks and explained their forecast. It will be held at Churchill Downs in Louisville, making it the 144th Kentucky Derby held there. Sassy Sienna will begin on the rail at 15-1 but could set the early pace in the 14-horse field that includes 5-2 second choice Midnight Bisou, victor of three in a row.
The Derby is now riding a 5 year streak of winning favorites. He is a very talented colt that is owned by Bob Baffert.
The pace of the Derby should be dictated by Promises Fulfilled, a Dale Romans trainee. Magnum Moon won the Arkansas Derby last month.
Flameaway needs to be up close, but his speed figures don't indicate that he will be there at the end.
After his commanding win in the UAE Derby, Mendelssohn is now the joint 4-1 favorite alongside Justify with United Kingdom bookmaker William Hill to win the Kentucky Derby. He will have the services of the best money rider in the country, Mike Smith, and will try to take another step forward in career start number 4.
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Kelly's Humor - 30-1 Morning Line - This horse's last win was Aug 20th of a year ago this horse will be way overmatched and should not factor into the race at all. One knock that can be justified (no pun intended) is that he's never really faced this deep of a field, so there is some worry if he gets swallowed up. "I was relieved when I saw him in seven". However, one can not ignore his dominating performance at the UAE Derby in Dubai, winning by 18.5 lengths in course record time. On the surface this seems great but let's dig a little deeper.
See you at the track. But I question whether he has the enough races and experience to still be running in the last 1/8th of a mile? Other than that though I can't see a scenario where this horse can win. Mendelssohn had the benefit of a strong track bias and a weak field, so I will discount that win and avoid his 4-1 morning line price.
Enticed is campaigned by Sheikh Mohammed's Godolphin and enters off a runner-up finish in the Wood Memorial Stakes presented by NYRA Bets (G2) after registering a clear victory in the Gotham Stakes (G3). It has been many years since a Wood Memorial victor has gone on to capture the Kentucky Derby, but both of these colts deserve some attention. "Instead of a nine-horse field he ran against in the Florida Derby, Audible will face 19 other horses on Saturday".
From the back of the pack we will have Lone Sailor, Hofburg, and My Boy Jack.
Bill Mott is a legendary trainer, and Hofburg finished 2nd to Audible in the Florida Derby. No one knows how these horses will respond in the spotlight and who will rise to the occasion.
Despite Cox's optimistic outlook for those horses, most of the attention in the Oaks will likely focus on Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou, the race's only entrants with single-digit odds. "I don't look as good as him, but I feel good about him". While Magnum Moon and Audible come in toward the top of the odds list, Vino Rosso is being overlooked despite the fact that he was jockey Johnny Velasquez's choice of Pletcher's four entrants. At the Santa Anita Derby, Justify was challenged by Bolt D'Oro, but when Justify turned it on he won by three lengths.
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